What to Expect with Future Blockbusters: Webinar follow-up

[chantell.reagan]

Specialty and non-specialty pipeline remains one of the hottest topics on DrugManagementForum. To expand this discussion, we started our “Blockbusters Webinar” series in this area.

Highlights of “What to Expect with Future Blockbusters”:

Our September 2009 Webinar (see more details here) was the first in the series. Please note the following highlights:

Projecting blockbuster sales is based on 2 crude factors, the size of the patient population and the cost of the drug. In addition, there are 3 “reality factors” that can affect a product’s sales and utilization potential:

1. Approval process (likeliness of FDA approval, other product restrictions)
2. Demand (product uniqueness, fulfilling an unmet clinical need)
3. Sustainability (payor positioning, market developments in the therapeutic category, safety surprises)

Managed care organizations have the insiders’ insight to adequately assess the potential for two of these reality factors - demand and sustainability - based on the emerging product profile and clinical trial data.

During the webinar, we covered 15 drugs in near-term pipeline (submission/late-phase III), and listed below are the top 5 products with the greatest blockbuster potential. Please note the analyst projections, estimated review/approval dates, and product differentiation are included in the webinar slides and audio for all 15 drugs. To view pipeline updates for individual products, please click on the individual link. To access DrugPipelineForecast, you must be a registered user of DrugManagementForum (click here to register)

o Brilinta (ticagrelor)
o Xarelto (rivaroxaban)
o Prolia (denosumab)
o Victoza (liraglutide)
o Stelara (ustekinumab) and see related link: FDA update on brand drug approvals for 9/29/09

Webinar participants cast their votes on how most of these products may impact drug utilization/trend.

Webinar Proceedings:
Webinar proceedings are available for download exclusively for the registered members of DrugManagementForum and log-in is required. If you haven't registered yet, please click here - the forum is open exclusively for those in the managed care sector (no pharma) and registration is free.

Webinar presentation AND video/audio recording (including poll results) - To access the proceedings, you must log in and then click here

Participant Questions and Follow-up Discussions:
The participant response was overwhelming. We also received a number of important questions that could not be fully addressed during the September 2009 Webinar. Over the next few weeks we would like to open the discussion on these questions to our entire community:

o Liraglutide cancer risk

o Afinitor sales projections

o MS blockbuster drugs

o Obesity blockbuster drugs